Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Fo-cusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alter-native modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Forecast Real Housing Returns in a

numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. fo-cusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alter-native modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.

Modeling Load Forecast Uncertainty in Power System Reliability Studies

A review of the literature on the topic indicates that the assumption of normality to model load forecast uncertainty in power system reliability studies is valid [1,2,3,4]. From a practical perspective, the use of normal curves models the possibility of extreme loads that have not been observed in history. These extreme loads represent rare events that have a very low probability of occurrence...

Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

S ince the early days of probability theory, there has been a distinction between probabilities that are given, as in a game of chance, and probabilities that are not given, but reflect a subjective degree of belief; Hacking (1975) and Shafer (1978) offer historical surveys. In economics, Knight (1921) is typically credited with the distinction between situations of “risk” and of “uncertainty.”...